Data for Better Decisions

Curiosity turned into insight

Martingale Betting Analysis

(MLB 2021–2025)

A risk-reward simulation of betting every MLB game with a Martingale strategy

Top 10 Preseason Results 2022-2025

Strategy Results

A season-long view of how every win, loss, and streak shaped the final bankroll under the Martingale system.

Filter by MLB season and betting style:

American League

National League

Preseason Top 10
Strategy Results

The goal isn’t to “prove a system,” but to stress test the hype: do preseason favorites actually protect you from Martingale’s risk, or do they just shift where the blow-ups happen?

Filter by MLB season and betting style:

SUM OF ALL 10 TEAMS = $6,401.27

When reviewing the five-year results of preseason top-10 teams, a clear pattern emerges. Moneyline and Spread strategies have shown steady, positive growth, with the Spread consistently outperforming Moneyline year after year. This suggests that betting on elite teams to cover the spread yields higher, and more stable returns than simply betting them to win outright.

In contrast, Over and Under strategies behave far more erratically. The “Over” often suffers from sharp drawdowns, including the massive -$218,794.78 result in 2025, highlighting how volatility can erode a Martingale bankroll. The “Under” fares slightly better but still lacks consistency, flipping between profit and loss across seasons.

Bankroll
Progression Chart

The Bankroll Progression Chart visualizes how the cumulative profit and loss evolved throughout the season using the Martingale strategy. Each upward trend represents profitable winning streaks, while sharp dips highlight extended loss sequences our “danger zones.” By following the bankroll movement over time, you can see how quickly small gains compound and how sudden drawdowns test the system’s risk tolerance. The shaded red areas mark periods when the Martingale reached its highest exposure, offering a transparent look at volatility.



Below, the Margin of Victory Chart helps explain those swings game by game, showing how each result (green for wins, red for losses) contributed to the bankroll’s rise or fall. Together, these two views tell the story of both performance consistency and risk management across the season.

Filter by MLB season, betting style, division and team:

Five-Year
Martingale Insights

Across five MLB seasons, the Martingale simulation exposes how fragile “sure things” really are. Even with a simple $20 base bet, compounding losses during streaks drove some strategies into six figure drawdowns, while others managed only modest, uneven gains. Looking at all divisions and seasons together, one pattern is clear: the shape of losing streaks matters more than how good a team is on paper.



Moneyline and Spread bets on strong teams produced the most stable performance, with Spread generally edging out Moneyline over time. That makes sense mathematically: you’re still backing elite teams, but you’re getting paid for them to cover a number, not just squeak out a win. In contrast, Over and Under strategies behaved like volatility amplifiers especially Overs. A single bad season in the Over space (like the massive -$218K plus Martingale drawdown you visualized) is enough to erase years of slower, steadier gains.



The preseason Top-10 analysis pushes this even further. On paper, those teams are “safer” choices. In practice, your charts show that the Martingale result for all ten favorites can still end up deeply negative over -$15,000 in one season alone because even the best clubs go cold at the wrong time. The lesson isn’t that projections are useless, but that can’t protect you from streak risk.

Responsible Use Disclaimer


This project is a data analysis study, not betting advice. The Martingale system is used here purely for statistical exploration and educational purposes. No strategy can eliminate risk, and nothing shown should be interpreted as financial or gambling guidance.


If you or someone you know is struggling with gambling-related issues, help is available:

Call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700
(available 24/7, confidential, and free)